UPDATE: In a shocking political shift, One Nation has overtaken the Liberal Party in the latest Newspoll, marking a historic moment in Australian politics. The poll, released on January 18, 2026, reveals One Nation at 22% of the primary vote, a stunning seven-point increase, while the Coalition has dropped to 21%, falling into third place behind Labor.
The timing of this polling shock is critical, coming just weeks after the Bondi Beach terror attack on December 14, which claimed 15 lives and has dominated the political landscape. The Coalition’s drop represents its worst performance in Newspoll history, raising alarms among party insiders about the potential loss of up to six Senate seats to One Nation in the upcoming elections.
Within the halls of Parliament, the atmosphere is tense as Coalition MPs arrive in Canberra. One staffer described the mood as “like a funeral” ahead of the parliamentary session. The urgent need to address Labor’s proposed legislation on hate speech and gun reforms, a direct response to the Bondi attack, adds to the pressure.
While some Coalition members express panic over the party’s dwindling electoral prospects, others urge caution, citing a separate Resolve poll indicating the Coalition leading One Nation 28% to 18%. This poll also shows them within striking distance of Labor, which stands at 30%.
The Coalition will convene for a critical meeting on Monday night to discuss their strategy moving forward. With voter sentiment shifting dramatically, all eyes are on how they will respond to maintain support and counteract One Nation’s rising influence.
The implications of this polling trend are profound, not just for the Coalition but for the entire Australian political landscape. Voter reactions and party strategies will be pivotal in the coming weeks as we approach the next election cycle.
Stay tuned for more updates as this developing story unfolds.
