As the world steps into 2026, significant geopolitical shifts loom on the horizon, reshaping international relations and power dynamics. A recent analysis presented ten foreign policy trends that highlight the challenges faced by established institutions and the evolving landscape of global governance. These trends underscore a deepening crisis of legitimacy within the West, coupled with rising powers advocating for greater representation.
The analysis, introduced by Chris Herrmann, the US programme coordinator at the European Council on Foreign Relations, reveals an unsettling reality. Although the world is unlikely to collapse entirely in 2026, key institutions appear increasingly hollowed out. The interconnectedness of nations is being weaponised, mirroring a broader illiberal wave that shows no signs of being merely a transient phenomenon.
Key Trends Shaping Global Politics
1. **Political Decay in Europe**: The far-right continues to gain traction across Europe, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) securing an outright majority in Saxony-Anhalt. This victory signifies a psychological shift rather than a mere political one. In France, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu‘s government has collapsed under pressure from both the left and right, while in the UK, the Labour Party faces an internal crisis following disappointing local election results. Rather than triggering a continental emergency, European leaders are adapting to this democratic erosion as a manageable condition.
2. **A Familiar Deal with Iran**: The Trump administration is set to announce a new agreement with Iran resembling the earlier Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) established during the Obama era. While the essential elements of nuclear restraint and sanctions relief remain, the deal is presented as a commercial victory, including incentives for US investment in Iran, alongside criticisms of its ballistic missile programme.
3. **Protectionism in Europe**: As tensions with the United States and China rise, Europe adopts a more confrontational stance regarding digital regulation. The European Commission has begun imposing substantial fines on US tech firms and restricting their market access. Concurrently, new cybersecurity measures effectively block Chinese electric vehicles and renewable technologies from entering European markets.
4. **US Disengagement Signals**: The recently published Force Posture Review from Washington outlines modest troop withdrawals from Europe, disappointing both transatlanticists and those advocating for restraint. More significantly, the messaging indicates a future of reduced American engagement unless European nations take on greater responsibility for their defence.
5. **An Uneasy Ceasefire in Ukraine**: A ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia is anticipated, driven by a combination of Ukrainian exhaustion and insistence from the United States. The arrangement, perceived as unbalanced, leads to a political stalemate, further complicating Ukraine’s future as elections unfold and Volodymyr Zelensky potentially steps down as president.
6. **Economic Ties between Britain and the EU**: Domestic pressures mount on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to pursue closer economic ties with the European Union, including potential alignment with the customs union. However, discussions between London and Brussels remain stagnant, resulting in a drift towards informal alignment out of necessity.
7. **Democratic Gains in the US House**: In the midterm elections, the Democratic Party regains control of the House of Representatives by focusing on affordability and a form of progressive economic nationalism. Despite this victory, they are unable to secure the Senate, and President Trump interprets the results as a mandate to continue his existing policies.
8. **The Role of Artificial Intelligence**: AI technology is anticipated to enhance state capabilities more than it disrupts societal structures. Governments are expected to leverage AI for various purposes, including tax collection and military logistics, leading to an expansion of administrative power despite declining public trust.
9. **Energy Sovereignty Takes Precedence**: The shifting narrative in Europe sees a move away from climate leadership towards a focus on “energy sovereignty.” Policies supporting decarbonisation will increasingly be framed within the context of strategic military objectives.
10. **Taiwan Remains Uninvaded**: Despite ongoing tensions, China is likely to refrain from invasion or blockade of Taiwan in 2026, a trend that reinforces a global atmosphere of grim satisfaction regarding international relations.
Bonus Predictions for 2026
The analysis also offers two additional predictions. The first suggests a stabilisation in Gaza, facilitating diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which may extend the Abraham Accords. The second highlights escalating sovereign debt challenges across the global south, which will intensify without triggering a singular crisis moment.
While these predictions paint a complex picture of 2026, they reflect a world navigating through uncertainty, where established norms are increasingly challenged and the balance of power continues to evolve.
