The ambitious plans for the Future Circular Collider (FCC) at CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, are under scrutiny due to rising geopolitical tensions and potential funding challenges. According to physicist and author Michael Riordan, the uncertain world order makes the $18 billion project increasingly questionable.
Last November, during the 4th International Symposium on the History of Particle Physics held at CERN near Geneva, experts gathered to discuss the future of particle physics. Historian John Krige highlighted that CERN’s significant achievements have positioned it as a global leader in the field. The organization gained prominence with the construction of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), which played a crucial role in the discovery of the Higgs boson in 2012.
The FCC aims to expand on this success by providing a larger platform for research. It would consist of an electron–positron collider, dubbed FCC-ee, expected to begin operations by 2050, followed by a proton–proton collider, FCC-hh, projected for the mid-2070s. The scale of the FCC, which would span more than 91 kilometers, represents a significant financial and engineering commitment amidst a shifting political landscape.
Funding for such an enormous project is precarious. The geopolitical climate has deteriorated, particularly after Russia’s recent expulsion from CERN, which diminishes prospects for international contributions. Additionally, collaborations with China have stalled, and the current U.S. administration’s “America First” stance complicates potential funding from the world’s wealthiest nation.
The ongoing international tensions were underscored by recent events, including the U.S. invasion of Venezuela, which have raised concerns about the future of international collaboration in scientific endeavors. Chris Llewellyn Smith, former director-general of CERN, noted that less than 12% of the LHC funding came from non-member nations, suggesting that securing a third of the FCC’s costs from international partners may be unrealistic.
A further complication arises from the rise of populist right-wing parties in Europe, which may not support extensive investments in scientific projects. Governments in Europe are also grappling with increased military expenditures due to tensions with Russia, further straining financial resources.
Given these challenges, Fabiola Gianotti, CERN’s outgoing director-general, emphasized the need for a pragmatic approach to future projects. It may be essential to consider alternative, less ambitious initiatives that could still yield significant scientific advancements.
Three potential projects have emerged as alternatives to the FCC. The first involves two linear electron–positron colliders, requiring only 11–34 kilometers of tunneling and potentially costing around €10 billion. While these would carry some technical risks, they could begin construction in the mid-2030s. The second option, known as LEP3, would utilize the existing LHC tunnel, allowing for an upgrade that could cost under €5 billion, albeit with a maximum energy of 240 GeV.
Additionally, CERN is exploring concepts like the Gamma Factory, which would utilize laser beams to facilitate research on Higgs boson interactions. This project aims to produce high-energy photons at a lower cost, emphasizing the need for innovation within financial constraints.
As CERN navigates this complex landscape, the organization must remain a beacon of international collaboration and scientific inquiry. The founders of CERN envisioned a laboratory that transcended national boundaries, serving as a cultural antidote to nationalism and anti-science sentiments.
In conclusion, while the aspirations for the FCC are commendable, CERN must develop a pragmatic “Plan B” that acknowledges current geopolitical realities. By doing so, CERN can continue to thrive as a leader in particle physics and uphold its commitment to groundbreaking scientific research. The future of CERN and its pioneering spirit now hinges on the choices made by its planners in an increasingly unpredictable world.
