UPDATE: A shocking new survey reveals a steep decline in confidence within the UK rail market, with 64% of railway business leaders predicting a contraction in the next 12 months. The survey, conducted by independent polling company Savanta among 125 railway executives in October and November 2025, highlights a worrying trend of hiring freezes and job cuts.
The results indicate a significant shift from the previous year’s data, where only 48% expected a market contraction. In stark contrast, only 12% believe the rail sector will see growth—down from 26% in a similar 2024 survey. Alarmingly, 62% of companies are either halting recruitment or reducing staff, with 34% actively making redundancies.
85% of rail leaders foresee a likely pause in rail work over the coming year. The primary actions taken include prioritizing projects outside the UK and freezing hiring initiatives. These alarming statistics raise urgent concerns about the future of the industry.
RIA Chief Executive Darren Caplan described the findings as “concerning,” emphasizing that while rail passenger and freight revenue is on the rise, the declining confidence is pushing businesses to freeze hiring or cut jobs. Caplan stated:
“More capacity will be required in the future, yet confidence in the UK rail market is falling. We need to take significant steps to bring more confidence to the rail market now.”
Despite the grim outlook, Caplan noted that many leaders remain optimistic about their own companies’ growth, particularly in international markets. However, he warned that without immediate action, the UK risks losing skilled talent to other sectors and countries.
The RIA has long warned about the cyclical “boom and bust” nature of rail infrastructure investment. Caplan urged the government to provide clarity on rail enhancement projects and to develop a transparent rolling stock strategy. He stressed the need for major rail clients to outline their spending plans urgently, especially in light of the upcoming Government Spending Review.
As the rail industry braces for what could be a turbulent year ahead, stakeholders await decisive actions from the government and industry leaders. The urgency to restore confidence in the rail market cannot be overstated, as the future of UK rail hangs in the balance.
For those invested in the rail sector, the implications of this survey are profound. Immediate reform and strategic planning are essential to ensure the sustainability and growth of this vital industry. The clock is ticking, and industry leaders are calling for action now.
