The United States has intensified its efforts to disrupt the oil trade between Venezuela and Cuba, a strategy aimed at destabilizing the regime of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has identified financial ties in this geopolitical landscape, believing that undermining Cuba’s support for Maduro could lead to significant changes in Caracas.
Historically, the Maduro government has relied on Cuba for assistance, particularly in terms of security and intelligence, as the U.S. increases its military presence in the Caribbean. In the past, during President Donald Trump‘s administration, there was a brief period when Maduro appeared vulnerable to regime change, only to be bolstered by Cuban backing. According to The New York Times journalists Michael Crowley and Edward Wong, cutting off Cuba’s support is seen as crucial in any attempt to overturn Maduro’s administration. Juan S. Gonzalez, who served as a senior aide for Western Hemisphere affairs under President Joe Biden, noted, “Under this approach, once Venezuela goes, Cuba will follow.”
The U.S. has also taken concrete actions to disrupt oil shipments. Recently, the tanker Skipper, which was transporting crude oil destined for Cubametales, Cuba’s state-run oil trading firm, was seized. This tanker is integral to the flow of Venezuelan oil to Cuba, which has historically been provided at subsidized rates. According to internal data from Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA, Skipper was headed to the Cuban port of Matanzas. After its departure, it transferred approximately 50,000 barrels of oil to another vessel, Neptune 6, which then continued its journey to Cuba.
Over the years, the Venezuelan government has provided oil to Cuba at heavily discounted prices, facilitating a vital resource for the economically strained island. In exchange, Cuba has sent numerous medical professionals, sports instructors, and security personnel to Venezuela. This exchange has become increasingly significant as Maduro has relied on Cuban personnel for protection against perceived threats, including the U.S. military’s activities in the region.
Despite this historical relationship, recent data suggests that only a fraction of the oil meant for Cuba has reached the island. Instead, much of it has been diverted to China, providing essential foreign currency for Cuba’s government. Ramon Carretero, a Panamanian businessman, plays a pivotal role in managing the oil flow between the two nations. The U.S. Treasury Department recently imposed sanctions on Carretero for facilitating shipments on behalf of the Venezuelan government.
Carretero declined to comment through a legal representative when approached about the sanctions. His involvement as an intermediary was first reported by the investigative outlet Armando.info.
Additionally, the Skipper has a history of serving in Iran’s tanker fleet before engaging in the Venezuelan oil trade. It spent four years transporting Iranian oil to destinations including Syria and China, according to shipping data firm Kpler and a senior Iranian oil ministry official speaking anonymously.
The current U.S. strategy appears to be in its early stages, aiming to disrupt the substantial crude oil flow from Venezuela to Cuba and beyond. Officials suggest this could create a ripple effect throughout the region, potentially leading to a further decline in Cuba’s economy while simultaneously weakening Maduro’s grip on power.
So far, Beijing has not reacted strongly to the seizure of Skipper or the associated disruptions to oil shipments to Asia. Observers are left to speculate whether a clandestine agreement exists between U.S. officials and Chinese counterparts, as the ongoing maneuvering may risk complicating future discussions between Trump and Xi Jinping.
The unfolding situation highlights the intricate ties between Venezuela and Cuba, and the lengths to which the U.S. will go to influence the balance of power in the region.
