A recent survey conducted by the Railway Industry Association (RIA) reveals a significant decline in confidence among railway business leaders in the UK. The study, commissioned from the independent polling company Savanta, included responses from 125 industry executives and highlights a worrying trend of recruitment freezes and job cuts across the sector.
The survey, carried out in October and November 2025, indicates that 64% of rail business leaders anticipate a contraction in the rail market over the next year. This is a marked increase from 48% in a similar survey conducted in 2024. Conversely, only 12% of respondents expect growth, down from 26% last year.
Recruitment Challenges and Business Outlook
The findings show that nearly two-thirds of rail businesses, or 62%, are either freezing recruitment or reducing their workforce, with 34% reporting actual redundancies. Alarmingly, 85% of those surveyed predict a hiatus in rail work over the coming year.
In response to these challenges, many companies are prioritising work outside the UK and implementing hiring freezes. While the percentage of leaders expecting their businesses to contract decreased by 6% year on year to 23%, those forecasting growth also fell, albeit slightly, from 46% to 44%.
Concerns from Industry Leaders
Darren Caplan, Chief Executive of the RIA, described the survey’s findings as “concerning.” He noted that although rail passenger, freight, and revenue levels are rising and increased capacity will be needed in the future, confidence in the UK rail market is diminishing. Caplan stated, “Rail businesses are freezing recruitment or reducing headcount,” highlighting the paradox of increasing demand amidst a declining outlook.
He further expressed optimism about individual companies’ abilities to grow, especially in foreign markets. However, Caplan warned, “The RIA and our members have been voicing concerns about ‘boom and bust’ cycles in rail infrastructure and rolling stock investment for years.” He stressed the urgent need for measures to reassure suppliers, allowing them to invest in their business plans and workforce for 2026.
The RIA has called for the UK government to provide more clarity on upcoming rail enhancement projects within its Infrastructure Pipeline. There is also a pressing demand for a comprehensive rolling stock strategy. Caplan emphasized that timely communication regarding funding plans and major rail clients’ spending intentions is essential to restoring confidence in the market.
In conclusion, while the rail industry is poised for growth with significant projects like the Transpennine Route Upgrade, East West Rail, Midlands Rail Hub, and Docklands Light Rail, immediate steps must be taken to bolster market confidence. Without these actions, the sector risks losing talented professionals to other industries and overseas markets.
