Rumors surrounding Donald Trump’s next presidential pardon have ignited intense interest, leading to six-figure betting pools on online platforms. Following the recent pardon of crypto executive Changpeng Zhao, bettors are keenly speculating on whom Trump might choose next. As of Tuesday, users on the prediction market Polymarket estimate a nine percent chance that Trump will pardon his former advisers Steve Bannon and Roger Stone.
Among other potential candidates, outgoing New York City Mayor Eric Adams holds an eight percent probability rating. Close behind, with seven percent each, are former Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani, music mogul P. Diddy, and crypto entrepreneur Roger Ver. While these individuals have garnered significant attention, bettors have also placed substantial sums on those with lower odds. For instance, over $916,000 has been wagered on Sam Bankman-Fried, while Ghislaine Maxwell generated more than $463,000 in trading volume.
Despite this fervent speculation, it is important to note that not all individuals listed are currently facing federal charges or convictions that a presidential pardon could address. Some have already received clemency from Trump. Bannon, for example, was pardoned in 2021 for his role in defrauding donors in a private scheme to construct a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. He is currently appealing a contempt of Congress conviction related to the January 6 investigation, seeking intervention from the U.S. Supreme Court.
Trump also granted clemency to Stone in 2020, just before he was set to serve time for lying to Congress and intimidating witnesses. In a separate development, federal officials dismissed a corruption case against Adams after he engaged with the White House on immigration matters. Although discussions of a potential federal position for Adams have surfaced, he has publicly denied any ongoing negotiations with the Trump administration. The decision to drop the case led to the resignation of several top prosecutors in protest.
Ver, known in cryptocurrency circles as “Bitcoin Jesus,” recently reached a $49.9 million deferred prosecution agreement with the Justice Department concerning tax evasion. The pardon of Zhao, the former CEO of Binance, has drawn criticism, particularly given Binance’s connections to the Trump family’s cryptocurrency ventures. When questioned about Zhao’s pardon on a recent episode of 60 Minutes, Trump claimed, “I don’t know who he is.”
Online betting markets like Polymarket have increasingly become tools for gauging political sentiment in real-time. Some analysts argue that these platforms promote civic engagement and can reflect public opinions faster than traditional polling methods. Others, however, express concerns that such betting markets could lead to potential corruption.
As bettors continue to place wagers and speculate on Trump’s next moves, the political landscape remains charged with anticipation and uncertainty regarding future pardons.
